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Writer's picturecdellarosa

3rd Quarter 2024 Newsletter & Market Report by Chris Della Rosa

(Included in this e-Newsletter: 3rd Quarter Market Report, Greater Hilton Head Area and The Lowcountry Statistics, Area Events, Area Improvements, Community Spotlight- HHP, Interest Rates Analysis, and My Personal Note)






The Market:

U.S. existing-home sales slid 2.5% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.86 million units, according to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). Meanwhile, home prices have continued to reach record heights nationwide, with NAR reporting a median sales price of $416,700 as of last measure, a 3.1% increase from the same time last year and a new high for the month.


This September, locally New Listings were up 1.4 percent to 514. Pending Sales decreased 2.7 percent to 367 and Inventory grew 33.7 percent to 1,683 units.


Prices moved higher as Median Sales Price was up 4.8 percent to $545,000. Days on Market increased 14.4 percent to 167 days. Months Supply of Inventory was up 37.9 percent to 4.0 months.


Amid slower home sales, inventory has continued to grow across the country. According to NAR, there were 1.35 million units for sale heading into September, a 0.7% increase from the previous month and a 22.7% jump from the same time last year. And while monthly existing-home sales were lower than expected this period, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun believes that the rise in inventory, along with lower mortgage rates, should help sales improve in the months ahead.


Sales:

Year To Date through September, Pending Sales in the Lowcountry decreased 2.7 percent, now at 4,123. Closed sales are surprisingly up 2.4 percent as of the end of September. However, each month since April has seen steady declines.


Listings:

Year to Date, the number of homes available for sale is up by 6.0 percent. There were 5,074 new listings YTD 2023 compared to 5,378 YTD 2024. It's important to note that while there has been an increase in inventory, it still remains quite low compared to what we would consider "normal".


Prices:

YTD 2024 the Median Sales Price is up 6.9 percent over the same span in 2023 from $509,000 to $545,000. The Average Sales Price is up 8 percent $690,817 (YTD 2023) and $745,971 (YTD 2024).


List Price Received: Sellers received, on average, 98.0 percent of their original list price at sale, a year-over-year decrease of 0.1 percent. This number is still 3% greater than the 95% of list price we had become accustomed to over the past 30+ years.


What to expect for the remainder of 2024 into 2025?

We are anticipating an increase in activity in the final months of 2024 on Hilton Head and in The Lowcountry once we have moved beyond the presidential election. Historically, real estate activity stalls in an election year, but rebounds shortly after. With continued interest rate relief expected, we anticipate buyers to rush back into the market, as well as see more sellers list their properties. Don't be surprised if we see multiple offer situations come back for a spell, since inventory will remain lower than what is typical, with the Months Supply of Inventory averaging approximately 3 - 4 months, compared to the 6 months supply in a "normal" market. Lastly, the demand to own property here is as strong as ever. Earlier this year, South Carolina ranked #3 in the US for inbound migration.


The long and short of it is this... Despite a slower than usual year, the Hilton Head Island, Bluffton, and the surrounding markets remain stronger than the national averages and will continue to be such.

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The following chart compares both September 2023/2024 activity as well as Year To Date activity comparing 2023 to 2024.




Hilton Head Area Events:


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Hilton Head Island's beaches are crucial to both residents and the local economy. To preserve this valuable resource, the Town has planned a beach restoration project for Summer 2025, funded primarily by tourism through the local Beach Preservation Fee.


  • The proposed project will include the placement of approximately 2.2 million cubic yards of beach compatible sand from up to four offshore borrow areas along about 46,500 feet of Atlantic Ocean and Port Royal Sound shoreline.

  • This project is part of the Town's ongoing beach management program, with renourishment scheduled every 8 to 10 years, depending on weather and beach conditions.

  • Pine Island in Hilton Head Plantation will be included in the 2025 restoration.


The proposed project will include sand placement along five areas of the island shoreline:


  1. South Beach / South Island - Approximately 750,000 cubic yards of sand along approximately 10,230 feet of the southern Atlantic Ocean shoreline.

  2. Central Island - Approximately 700,000 cubic yards along 28,860 feet of Atlantic Ocean shoreline.

  3. The Heel - Approximately 500,000 cubic yards of sand along 5,280 feet at the northeast point of the island at the intersection of the Atlantic Ocean and Port Royal Sound shoreline.

  4. Fish Haul Creek - Approximately 50,000 cubic yards of sand along about 2,130 feet of Port Royal Sound shoreline.

  5. Pine Island - Approximately 180,000 cubic yards of beach compatible sand and construction of six rock breakwaters on the Port Royal Sound shoreline of Hilton Head Plantation between Dolphin Head and Pine Island.


    Coastal Discovery Museum Improvements


The Coastal Discovery Museum is getting much-needed enhancements to its pavilion, grounds, and other facilities on the Honey Horn property, with work underway this month.


As part of its Capital Improvements Program for fiscal year 2025, the Town of Hilton Head Island budgeted $450,000 for a series of improvements at the museum including upgrades to the Mary Ann Peeples Pavilion area, beginning with essential tree care for the majestic live oaks on the property. The pavilion was built in 2006 and is a popular and picturesque site for special events, school and public programming, private parties, and weddings. The upgrades are designed to elevate the experience of all events hosted at the pavilion and ensure they meet the highest standards now and in the future.


In the upcoming months, the installation of new hardscaping, patios, and pathways will enhance the event space around the pavilion and improve accessibility to the adjacent building and throughout the Camellia Garden.


The enhancement to the pavilion is just part of the infrastructure work the Town committed to address as part of the 2023-2025 Strategic Action Plan. These upcoming projects, set to be funded through the CIP budget, include renovations to flooring and office spaces, interior repairs to the Discovery Lab, structural repairs to the horse barn, and various other enhancements such as gate and boardwalk repairs, well and field irrigation, fence repair, and HVAC upgrades. Funding for all the improvements is generated through electric franchise fees the Town receives from its local electric utility.


You can also follow the progress of project work via the Capital Improvement Program dashboard on the Town’s website at hiltonheadislandsc.gov.

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This newsletter's Community Spotlight features Hilton Head Plantation. Many luxury gated communities exist today, but Charles Fraser developed Hilton Head Plantation is worlds apart from most others. Set on nearly 4,000 acres of breathtaking natural beauty, it is bounded by the Intracoastal Waterway and Port Royal Sound.


Besides being minutes from Hilton Head's beautiful beaches and rich cultural sites, the historic cities of Beaufort, SC (50 minutes away), Savannah, GA (one hour away), and Charleston, SC (two hours away) make living in Hilton Head Plantation the perfect residential headquarters to take advantage of all the extensive opportunities our coastline has to offer.


Some facts about Hilton Head Plantation:

  • HHP encompasses almost 4,000 acres and features:

  • Population - Approximately 10,000

  • Homes and Lots - 4,278

  • Parks - Dolphin Head Recreation Area, Spring Lake Pavilion, and the Surrey Lane Ball Fields 

  • Pool - Spring Lake Pool

  • Bluff Walk - The Bluff Walk’s primary purpose is to service the revetment that protects the Bluff.  It has a secondary use as a recreational leisure path.  The Bluff Walk is .9 mile, one-way.

  • Beach - Located in the Dolphin Head Recreation Area – two miles of walking beach

  • Lakes and Lagoons - The POA maintains a number of lakes and lagoons throughout the Plantation.   The primary purpose of these bodies of water is Storm Water Management.  They also have secondary benefits such as wildlife habitat, aesthetics, and fishing.

  • Bicycle Trails: HHP offers many miles of dedicated bicycle /walking paths.

  • Two Conservancies - Whooping Crane Pond Conservancy and the Cypress Conservancy

  • Tennis - 12 Har Tru tennis courts, 2 bocce ball courts, and 3 shuffleboard courts

  • Club Houses - Spring Lake Pavilion, Dolphin Head Recreation Area, and the Plantation House

  • Short-Term Rentals - Properties subject to the Class “A” Covenants may not be rented for less than six (6) months.  Tenants with a lease of nine (9) months or more will have access to all the amenities owned by HHPPOA.

  • Open Space - Acres of unspoiled open space, plus many other recreational amenities for use by the residents.

  • Golf - Four golf courses are located within the community.

    - Dolphin Head Golf, Bear Creek Golf, and Oyster Reef Golf Clubs are semi-private/public.

    - The Country Club of Hilton Head is a private club (golf is semi-private/public), full-service Club with tennis, a new state-of-the-art fitness club, restaurant, as well as an indoor and outdoor pools.

  • Other Commercial - The Skull Creek Marina and The Lagerhead Tavern

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Interest Rates- What might we expect?


Mortgage rates are coming down a little after peaking near 8%. 30-year fixed rates are approximately 6.64%, and 15-year fixed rates are averaging about 5.99%.


(An illustration of just how relative mortgage interest rates are.)


Financial markets anticipate that the Fed will take a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments, implementing smaller 0.25% rate reductions at a slower pace. The path to lower mortgage rates is going to be bumpy and long, particularly if we continue to get positive or even mixed economic data in the coming months.


After the first 0.5% rate reduction in September, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 0.25% in November. Depending on the incoming economic data, we could see another 0.25% at the central bank’s final policy meeting of the year in December.


Based on current forecasts, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rates could drop to 6% by the end of the year. But there’s always room for volatility in the mortgage market. If future inflation data or labor market reports show the economy softening too much, the Fed may be forced to make larger and/or more frequent rate cuts, which could cause a dip in mortgage rates.

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My Personal Note


Here we are, almost 10 months through 2024. As always, time has flown.


All three girls are doing great. Selena has left he nest and is now teaching Pre-K in Charleston at James Island Elementary School. So far so good.


Celeste is still in Charleston as well. She is pursuing a career in real estate, helping her boyfriend with his fix and flip business.


Mazzi is the busiest of all. She started Middle School (6th grade) this August. It seems like she's always taking part in some performance. At present, she is cast in her middle school show of "Mean Girls- The Musical", as well as being a member of chorus. She is also taking stage singing classes with The Main Stage Community Theatre. Additionally, this week she begins her journey into school cheerleading, cheering at halftime for our own Hilton Head Island Seahawks.



As for Amy and me... we continue to stay busy. Amy continues to work closely with her mother at Kuwahi Dolls, helping her to launch/promote their new line of collector dolls "Joy Forever". https://www.kuwahidolls.com/


Aside from work, I'm preparing to start coaching our HHIHS Soccer Team for my fourth year. We've begun off-season workouts, and the future of our team is looking bright.


This is always such a fun time of year for us, with the holidays rapidly approaching. There are so many wonderful opportunities to catch up and celebrate with friends, both old and new.


I'm expecting a pretty busy year in real estate with an increase in sales activity on the horizon. I would love to hear from you and be of service however possible. And as always, I would greatly appreciate your referrals.


All the best!

- Chris



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